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IZA
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On the Production of Victory: Empirical Determinants of Battlefield Success in Modern War
by
Ralph Rotte, Christoph M. Schmidt
(May 2002)
published in: Defence and Peace Economics, 2003, 14 (3), 175-192
Abstract:
Using a data set of historical battles from 1600 to 1973, this paper analyzes the empirical
determinants of tactical success in modern war. Based on a reduced form approach we
consider key elements of military theory as factors in the production of combat success,
formalized in a military production function. The paper focuses on the relationship of material
and non-material factors to battlefield success, and especially on the role of superior force
strengths. Contrary to the emphasis on technology which can be found in the recent
literature, our estimation results indicate that numerical superiority has retained its crucial role
for battlefield performance throughout history. In general, human elements of warfare, like
leadership, morale and surprise, have continued to be important determinants of battle
outcome despite technological progress in weapons.
Text: See Discussion Paper No. 491
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