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IZA
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Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany
by
Amelie F. Constant, Douglas S. Massey
(December 2002)
published in: Journal of Population Economics, 16 (4), 2003, 631-653
Abstract:
In this paper we seek to deepen understanding of out-migration as a social and economic
process and to investigate whether cross-sectional earnings assimilation results suffer from
selection bias. To model the process of out-migration we conduct a detailed event history
analysis of men and women immigrants in Germany. Our 14-year longitudinal study reveals
that emigrants are negatively selected with respect to occupational prestige and to stable full
time employment. Our results show no selectivity with respect to human capital, earnings, or
gender. The likelihood of return migration is strongly determined by the range and nature of
social attachments to Germany and origin countries, and grows higher toward retirement.
This selective emigration, however, does not appear to distort cross-sectional estimates of
earnings assimilation.
Text: See Discussion Paper No. 672 
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